Note: This was initially published on 14 March 2020, and will be updated as news comes in
So I've been monitoring the global news on the virus practically every day from various reliable news sources like DW, Al Jazeera, Channel News Asia, etc, and observing trends. I also observed posts from friends who joke about panic buying, think this virus is over-hyped, and it's all going to pass us by and things are going to be perfectly OK. I think it's a mistake to take this situation lightly, but I can only share what has been happening globally, and what has been consistently been reported about the virus from several sources, and you guys can make your own decisions what to do, but at least I have done my part to spread awareness and try and help the people I care about. Of course, please feel free to verify and challenge anything I say and do your own research, coz I'm not a medical expert and for all you know, I could just be spouting nonsense. My main point in this post is very simple: We all must do what we can to NOT overload the medical systems! Here's why:
1) COVID19 is not a simple flu, and it's not the same as SARS or Mers-CoV. The death rate from COVID19 is higher then the flu, and lower than SARS or Mers-CoV, at between 2-5%. So yes, it's true you are quite unlikely to die from the virus. So that's not the problem. What makes it a big problem is that it is much more contagious than all these other viruses, and has a long incubation period (where someone can spread the virus without showing any symptoms). Authorities keep saying quarantine needs to be for 2 weeks, but it's very likely the incubation period is probably longer than that. So far as I'm concerned, temperature checks are useless as they can only identify people who already show symptoms. You could be hanging out regularly with an infected person who never shows any symptoms for 2 weeks or more. When the virus is so easily contagious, many people can easily get infected, and this will overload the hospitals and medical centres. And although the death rate is only 2-5% the percentage of people who need hospitalization from the virus, which includes quarantine and probably being put on a ventilator in an ICU, is around 20% of cases. Hospitals only have a few number of ICUs and ventilators, so having many cases at one time can easily overload hospitals and medical systems, which is what is happening in China, Italy, Iran and many other countries. When medical systems are overloaded, it's not just bad for COVID19 patients, it's bad for anyone who's been in an accident or needs regular medical care, or just regular hospital patients. It may come to the point where doctors have to choose who gets treated and who doesn't, and yes, this is also happening in other countries.
2) It does not just kill the elderly and people with preexisting conditions. Healthy people who are 40 and above can also suffer very bad respiratory problems from the virus, which can involve few weeks in ICU on a ventilator. The first Chinese doctor who reported the virus was in his early 30's and he died from the virus. THANKFULLY, young children and young people below 20 seem to be quite unaffected by the virus and next to zero deaths. BUT that doesn't mean they don't get infected. They could still be infected and spread the virus to their loved ones, yet be perfectly healthy. So young people, don't think you can take it easy. You have a social responsibility to protect yourself to protect the older folks especially if you live with your parents or grandparents. Do your part to NOT overload the medical systems!
3) So what can you do to help curb the spread? Well, most important is follow the tips going round on good hygiene and hand washing. Learn to be an introvert (if you aren't already) coz socialising now especially in big groups or crowded areas is a bad idea. But we still need to keep the economy going, so we can still shop online using Shopee, Lazada and Happyfresh, and support Grab food by ordering food instead of eating in public areas. Also, know how to identify symptoms. Symptoms of the virus are coughing, high fever and shortness of breath. Sneezing and running nose are not symptoms of COVID19, so no need to run screaming to the nearest clinic or hospital to get tested if someone sneezed on you. There are experts saying that wearing surgical masks is not really helpful or necessary for healthy people, and it should only be worn by sick people and medical staff. I honestly don't know if this is true, but I also don't support wearing surgical masks coz medical staff need them more us and big problem now is a lot of hospitals don't have enough masks which is putting them at risk. We need our medical personnel to be healthy so they can treat patients, so do your part to NOT overload the medical systems and stop hoarding surgical masks! Personally I have my own cloth N95 mask which I bought months ago for use in my job, and it can be cleaned and reused with a replaceable carbon filter which is supposedly able to filter viruses. If you can get your hands on a reusable N95 mask with replaceable carbon filters, that would be better than using disposable surgical masks, though they can get difficult to breath through after a while.
4) This will be my most controversial point, and a lot of people I know don't believe or hope it doesn't come to this, but the stats are showing otherwise. I think we need to be prepared to go under lockdown or self isolation, get essentials to last at least several weeks like canned food and whatever medications you rely on (However, please, please, please don't panic buy and hoard much more than you need! Be considerate to others!). Why? Because I'm predicting that the KL Tabligh event is going to do in Malaysia what the Daegu cult did in South Korea. Currently about 77 confirmed cases from all around Malaysia have been identified from that one event. We don't know how many more of the 14,000 participants are out there, not wanting to be tested, quietly spreading it to their loved ones, friends, co-worker and any random people they come in contact with. In 2 weeks to a month, Malaysia will very easily end up with thousands of cases coz even though the government has banned mass gatherings, this still does not apply to Friday prayers. (Edit: I just found out TODAY that was a Hindu lights festival in Penang on 13th March with over 30,000 devotees in one area, which at this point is just outright scary as we're very likely to see a big rise in cases from that event as well. Why why why, oh why, people why?).
Please do not take offence on suggesting religious mass gatherings should be put on hold until things get better, as this is a national health risk and the virus can affect anyone regardless of race or religion. So this applies to any big festivals (religious or not), churches, even workplaces and schools have to also make that hard decision to avoid mass gatherings for now. Where possible, if workplaces can encourage people to work from home, college or university lessons be taught online, and religious sermons be held online, then this would help curb the spread. In Italy, Catholic masses are even being done outdoors with 1 meter separation between participants. Of course, there will be challenges, especially for people who simply can't work from home, or have no one to take care of their kids if schools are closed. But if we don't start now, then the big boom in cases will be unavoidable, and frankly, you won't be able to work or take care of your kids if you happen to get the virus and need to be quarantined, or worse. All of which is much worse than a temporary lockdown of movement.
The action from our government has to be quick and strict, but we can't rely on them coz the current ministers are new and no one wants to rock the boat or do anything to upset the public, including taking any actions to curb this virus which may seem excessive, but based on global trends, are more than necessary. They will most likely only take strict action when a huge rise in cases happens, and by then it might be too late to avoid overloading hospitals. I hope it doesn't happen, but hoping doesn't change the statistics, and the statistics in other countries show the big boom in cases is inevitable unless drastic action is taken. As seen, from the trends in past few weeks in other countries like Italy, Iran, Spain, Germany and France, they all experienced a rapid exponential rise is cases in a short time leading to thousands of cases all at once, and Malaysia is on the same path (China and Korea did too, but they are not experiencing a sharp rise in daily cases anymore like other countries are now, though I doubt the accuracy of any data coming out of China coz' of the CCP propaganda). In any case, China, South Korea, Italy, Spain and now even Manila (which has fewer cases than Malaysia) has gone into lockdown to some areas, Italy being the most the extreme by locking down the ENTIRE country! All this seemingly excessive but perhaps the only way to curb the spread of the virus, as telling people suspected to have the virus to self quarantine or take tests is usually not effective enough. So in my opinion, a lockdown in Malaysia is possible to happen within the next few weeks.
Anyhow the message here is to the authorities, please take swift and strict action before we become like all these other countries! And for the rest of us, don't panic and please do NOT buy more than you need as lockdown does not mean we will not be allowed out to buy essential items but mainly our movements and social activities will be more restricted. Be considerate to others and DO NOT be a selfish SOB hoarding essential items. You DON'T need to hoard toilet paper, coz there are many ways to clean your body parts, like you know, bidets and soap? Just be prepared, be informed, take extra precautions to stay healthy, avoid big crowds and group events, and most importantly, do what you can to NOT overload the medical systems. Stay safe and healthy!
EDIT (15 March 2020): The government just announced 190 new confirmed COVID19 cases today, which brings our total new cases up to 428. Still no cases from the Penang Hindu festival and we can only pray and hope that by some miracle, no cases come from that event. But for now, I'm gonna revise my prediction. Most likely we will hit 1000 over new cases within less than a week. In 2 weeks by 30th March, we will have several thousand cases. Please please push the authorities to strictly enforce the ban on ALL pubic gatherings, avoid mass gatherings altogether and stay safe and healthy, folks. It's getting scary but we can get through this if we all don't panic and implement precautions
EDIT (17 March 2020): Well, it finally happened last night. Malaysia will be under a partial lockdown from 18 - 30 March. Today will a crazy day for us as many figure out what to do and how badly it will affect them and their businesses Do keep calm as it was announced that supermarkets, grocery stores and other areas selling essential items will still be open and electricity, water and other support and emergency services will be maintained. So it's not a draconian lockdown with complete prohibition of movement like China did, and no need to panic buy coz supermarkets will still be open. But I expect the supermarkets will still be packed with people today.
If you ask me if my prediction will be changed, I think for at least the first week, no. We will still see an increase to 1000 cases in the next few days coz the measures taken should have been taken earlier. But now we have over 500 confirmed cases, and each of those people very likely infected at least 2 to 3 others in the past couple of weeks, so do the math. I can only hope that the partial lockdown at this point will gradually slow the rise over time and will be enough to stop our medical care facilities from being overloaded. But I fear it's already too late and we will become like Italy where the whole country is on a similar lockdown but their number of cases is still rising like crazy and their medical systems are overburdened. Only time will tell
So, please be wise and don't try to defy the lockdown. We all need to be extra vigilant now to stay at home as much as possible, practice good hygiene and social distancing and avoid overloading our medical systems.
Stay safe and healthy, guys!
Malaysia's impending COVID-19 big boom
Posts
